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Infotrak Poll: Majority of Luhya Voters Lean Towards Opposition Ahead of 2027 Elections
A new Infotrak poll shows 35% of Luhya voters favour backing the Opposition ahead of the 2027 elections, while 26% support Kenya Kwanza. Another 24% prefer conditional support. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya emerged as the most influential Luhya leader.
Most voters from the Luhya community favour supporting the Opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new opinion poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting.
The survey indicates that 35 per cent of respondents believe the Abaluhya should rally behind the Opposition as the country prepares for the next polls.
However, the findings also show notable support for the ruling coalition, with 26 per cent of respondents saying the community should back the Kenya Kwanza administration in 2027.
Meanwhile, 24 per cent of those interviewed preferred a strategic political approach, arguing that the Luhya community should negotiate conditional support with any coalition based on clear commitments and tangible benefits.
A smaller section of respondents, nine per cent, favoured political independence for now, while six per cent said they were undecided on which political direction the community should take.
At the county level, Busia County recorded the strongest preference for the Opposition, with 53 per cent of respondents expressing support. Vihiga County, on the other hand, showed the highest backing for the ruling coalition, where 45 per cent favoured Kenya Kwanza.
Bungoma County registered the highest proportion of respondents advocating political independence, with 12 per cent saying the community should delay aligning with any coalition.
The poll was conducted on December 29, 2025, using Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI). It targeted registered voters aged 18 years and above, with a sample size of 600 respondents drawn proportionately from Vihiga, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties. The margin of error was ±4.0 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.
The survey further identified George Natembeya, the Governor of Trans Nzoia, as the most influential leader within the Luhya community, with 50 per cent of respondents naming him as the key political figure.
He was followed by Musalia Mudavadi, the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, who scored 32 per cent.
Edwin Sifuna, the Nairobi Senator and Secretary General of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), ranked third with 31 per cent.
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